Table 3 Models fitting the probability of use per herd quarter of a HPCIA 3rd /4th generation cephalosporins. Notably, cephalosporins were not used in “other” production types and were therefore omitted from the final model
From: Antimicrobial use in pig herds in Ireland: analysis of a national database (2019–2023)
a. Pr(macrolide use/quarter) | b. Pr(fluoroquinolone use/quarter) | c. Pr(cephalosporin use/quarter) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EXP(β) (95% CI) | p value | EXP(β) (95% CI) | p value | EXP(β) (95% CI) | p value | |
Year-quarter | ||||||
2019-1 | 0.878 (0.551-1.400) | 0.585 | 0.975 (0.650–1.464) | 0.904 | 0.932 (0.389–2.234) | 0.874 |
2019-2 | 0.909 (0.57–1.447) | 0.686 | 0.813 (0.542–1.219) | 0.316 | ref (-) | |
2019-3 | ref (-) | 0.97 (0.648–1.453) | 0.882 | 0.898 (0.372–2.168) | 0.810 | |
2019-4 | 0.990 (0.636–1.543) | 0.966 | ref (-) | 0.776 (0.323–1.865) | 0.571 | |
2020-1 | 0.791 (0.528–1.186) | 0.257 | 0.899 (0.637–1.267) | 0.542 | 0.624 (0.279–1.395) | 0.251 |
2020-2 | 0.788 (0.526–1.182) | 0.250 | 0.757 (0.537–1.068) | 0.113 | 0.685 (0.31–1.513) | 0.350 |
2020-3 | 0.740 (0.491–1.113) | 0.148 | 0.735 (0.520–1.038) | 0.080 | 0.665 (0.3-1.477) | 0.316 |
2020-4 | 0.769 (0.512–1.153) | 0.203 | 0.706 (0.500-0.996) | 0.047 | 0.588 (0.262–1.319) | 0.198 |
2021-1 | 0.670 (0.445–1.009) | 0.055 | 0.643 (0.456–0.905) | 0.011 | 0.476 (0.206–1.099) | 0.082 |
2021-2 | 0.671 (0.447–1.006) | 0.054 | 0.684 (0.487–0.960) | 0.028 | 0.43 (0.184–1.009) | 0.052 |
2021-3 | 0.516 (0.340–0.782) | 0.002 | 0.577 (0.411–0.810) | 0.002 | 0.416 (0.178–0.972) | 0.043 |
2021-4 | 0.608 (0.404–0.915) | 0.017 | 0.585 (0.417–0.822) | 0.002 | 0.414 (0.177–0.966) | 0.041 |
2022-1 | 0.637 (0.425–0.955) | 0.029 | 0.504 (0.359–0.708) | < 0.001 | 0.316 (0.129–0.776) | 0.012 |
2022-2 | 0.484 (0.316–0.741) | 0.001 | 0.305 (0.214–0.435) | < 0.001 | 0.046 (0.007–0.319) | 0.002 |
2022-3 | 0.531 (0.347–0.814) | 0.004 | 0.266 (0.185–0.383) | < 0.001 | 0.145 (0.043–0.491) | 0.002 |
2022-4 | 0.450 (0.289-0.700) | < 0.001 | 0.205 (0.140–0.298) | < 0.001 | 0.13 (0.035–0.475) | 0.002 |
2024-1 | 0.439 (0.283–0.682) | < 0.001 | 0.268 (0.186–0.385) | < 0.001 | 0.129 (0.036–0.459) | 0.002 |
2024-2 | 0.585 (0.382–0.896) | 0.014 | 0.225 (0.155–0.327) | < 0.001 | 0.137 (0.038–0.49) | 0.002 |
2024-3 | 0.751 (0.496–1.138) | 0.177 | 0.306 (0.213–0.441) | < 0.001 | 0.077 (0.015–0.397) | 0.002 |
2024-4 | 0.586 (0.379–0.906) | 0.016 | 0.226 (0.154–0.331) | < 0.001 | 0.09 (0.019–0.435) | 0.003 |
Herd type | ||||||
Farrow-to-finish (Ref.) | ref (-) | ref (-) | ref (-) | |||
Breeder to Weaner unit | 1.059 (0.532–2.109) | 0.871 | 1.669 (0.956–2.913) | 0.072 | 1.791 (0.578–5.551) | 0.313 |
Finisher/fattening unit | 0.364 (0.218–0.606) | < 0.001 | 0.205 (0.136–0.309) | < 0.001 | 0.195 (0.059–0.647) | 0.008 |
Other | 0.549 (0.126–2.395) | 0.425 | 0.525 (0.169–1.636) | 0.267 | no obs. (-) | |
Herd size quartiles (size range) | ||||||
1 (< 1442; Ref.) | ref (-) | ref (-) | ref (-) | |||
2 (1442–3157) | 1.314 (0.944–1.828) | 0.105 | 1.506 (1.153–1.967) | 0.003 | 1.009 (0.407–2.498) | 0.985 |
3 (3158–6006) | 2.033 (1.421–2.909) | < 0.001 | 1.939 (1.434–2.621) | < 0.001 | 3.658 (1.595–8.387) | 0.002 |
4 (6001–23056) | 1.946 (1.283–2.951) | 0.002 | 2.317 (1.628–3.298) | < 0.001 | 4.025 (1.676–9.667) | 0.002 |
Constant | 0.293 (0.181–0.472) | < 0.001 | 1.026 (0.688–1.531) | 0.898 | 0.049 (0.019–0.132) | < 0.001 |